Economic Scenario Generator Public
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When making financial decisions, companies and individuals want to be prepared to face the numerous economic futures that could arise. An Economic Scenario Generator (ESG) uses probabilistic and other mathematical models in order to produce simulations which demonstrate the potential future behavior of stock returns. We built our ESG using Visual Basic for Applications in Microsoft Excel, with the goal of being able to generate simulations of the annual log returns of seven stock indices. The simulations are generated by extrapolating the historical data of these indices, which was analysed with the use of Maximum Likelihood Estimation. The returns generated by our ESG may help investors to view several potential future economic scenarios before making important financial decisions.
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