Trends in Health ReservesPublic
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This paper evaluates reserving trends in the health insurance industry. Our analysis used 2016 to 2019 data from Annual Health Statements and includes 1,749 distinct health companies and subsidiaries in Medical, Medicare, Medicaid, and the Total of lines of business. We created and examined various distributions that describe the accuracy and conservativeness of the industry. Also, we analyzed how past reserving trends relate to future trends and identified various attributes that are correlated with reserve estimates. Lastly, using our analysis and 2016 to 2018 data, we created a model to forecast future reserve adequacy. We tested the model by predicting 2019 reserve accuracy and comparing it to the actual 2019 data.
- This report represents the work of one or more WPI undergraduate students submitted to the faculty as evidence of completion of a degree requirement. WPI routinely publishes these reports on its website without editorial or peer review.
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