In the search of better mathematical methods to predict the development of the current epidemic, we established a new model called SEQIR to simulate the transmission of COVID-19 based on the properties of COVID-19, after conducting a comparative study of several common models of epidemic transmission. Furthermore, associating with the real time data in Worcester, we quantified the effects of different control policies on prevention of epidemic spread. In order to improve the simulation and prediction effect of the new model, we then explored theSEQIR model with time delay and latent period, and evaluated two steady states, which are disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. By using Routh–Hurwitz stability criterion and analyzing the dynamic stability of the equilibrium points, we indicated changing the value of time delay in the system does not have influence on disease spread. Under the endemic equilibrium condition, when R0 is larger than 1, the system is locally stable for any valueτof time delay.

• This report represents the work of one or more WPI undergraduate students submitted to the faculty as evidence of completion of a degree requirement. WPI routinely publishes these reports on its website without editorial or peer review.

Creator

• Zhou, Yuanchen
• Wu, Jing

Subject

• Health

Publisher

• Worcester Polytechnic Institute

Identifier

• 25246
• E-project-053121-103241

Mot-clé

• COVID-19
• Mathematical Simulation
• Stability
• SEIQR Model

Advisor

• Olson, Sarah D

Year

• 2021

Date created

• 2021-05-31

Resource type

• Major Qualifying Project

Major

• Mathematical Sciences

Rights statement

• In Copyright

Dernière modification

• 2021-08-29