System Dynamics Modeling to Characterize Water Sustainability in the Oxnard Basin, California

Choudhary, Evelyn

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System Dynamics Modeling to Characterize Water Sustainability in the Oxnard Basin, California

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The State of California is experiencing exceptional drought conditions that are threatening the availability of water resources for potable and non-potable applications. Water infrastructure development, water governance, and management of water resources is multidimensional and is impacted by complex natural and human changes. A system dynamics model was developed and used to simulate historical conditions and potential future conditions for the Oxnard Basin, a critically over drafted groundwater basin in Southern California. The model was calibrated to historical data from 1985 to 2015 and then used to project future conditions. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the variability of the model and its sensitivity to model parameters such as population growth and irrigation demand. The calibrated model was used to simulate future projected climate scenarios and to evaluate the impact of potential future infrastructure projects on the basin. The findings from the study illustrate the complex nature of the system while identifying the impact of three major infrastructure projects on the basin’s future water sustainability. The model results indicated that population growth, groundwater pumping regulation, coastal flux, and extended drought periods are threats to water security in the basin. Infrastructure implementation, particularly the use of recycled water provides an opportunity to improve water security in the basin. These results illustrate the importance of integrated decision-making, the challenges in planning for uncertain future conditions, and the opportunity to use system dynamic modeling to assist policy makers, engineers, and water-decision makers relating to the management of water resources.

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